31 Days of Oscar – 2013 Predictions and Musings

I am the first to admit that I have been too busy to actually see a good many of the 2013 nominees, but I still like predicting who will win and lamenting who should win but probably won’t. I haven’t read anyone else’s predictions but I do rely heavily on tweet buzz. I estimate a whopping .5% of the Academy are on Twitter, so we’ll see how that goes.

argo5-low-resBest Picture — While I’ve seen less than half the nominees in this category, and I suspect that Moonrise Kingdom belongs in it, I’m really happy to see movies from so many different genres get the nod. We’ve got a detective story, a Western, a couple of fantasies, historical drama, a musical, and even a rom-com that shows that two dysfunctional people can have a functional relationship. Not that Silver Linings Playbook is going to win…it looks like that distinction will go to Argo, with which I’m completely happy.

The detective story? Zero Dark Thirty. That’s how I think of it, but sometimes I wonder if I saw the same movie as everyone else. So I’ve really stopped reading anything about it. Yes, it shows torture and that really is bad f*cking news…but it also shows that, whether despite the torture or because of it, terrorist attacks continued. [[Possible spoiler —> Lead agent Maya (Jessica Chastain) gets her initial lead by tricking a suspect. Maya’s boss’s boss George (Mark Strong) sure does get ticked that his team isn’t making more progress. He advocates for more torture and more violence, to no avail. In the end, what does work (in the film anyway) was a methodology worthy of an old episode of Columbo or Agatha Christie’s Miss Marple…cross-checking rediscovered records from Moroccan intelligence. That’s right…bin Laden was found as a result of detective work.]] If this film glorifies torture, then Trainspotting and Requiem for a Dream glorify drugs.

zero-dark-thirty1Maybe the reason ZDT is so controversial is because a woman is the lynchpin of the ultimately successful “greatest manhunt in history.” Maybe it’s because Jason Clarke makes Dan, Maya’s colleague who does a lot of torturing, funny and likable, and that makes people uncomfortable (could just be me). Whatever the reason, the controversy surrounding this film has overshadowed its actual merit. There seems to be more outcry against a fictional piece of entertainment than there was against a real-life U.S. policy. Which is sad because it takes a ton of talent to retell a now-familiar story that is more static than dynamic in such an absorbing and visually stunning way. Yet this didn’t even get a nomination for Cinematography.

Actor — Daniel Day Lewis.

Actress — This is between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, with Lawrence winning it. I guess there’s a small chance they’ll cancel each other out and someone else will take home the statuette, but I doubt it. This is Chastain’s second Oscar nomination and sometimes I wonder if she’ll ever win, because her acting seems so effortless and her looks are so timeless. Hopefully those two attributes provide her with a long career.

I had fun once...

Supporting Actor — I’d like Christoph Waltz to win but I’m thinking it’s going to be Tommy Lee Jones.

Supporting Actress — Anne Hathaway. I don’t get why there’s so much negativity about her.

Director — Even though I’d rather talk about who isn’t in this category, I have the feeling this is a really close race. Or maybe it works the other way around…the race was so close that not all the worthy could be nominated. At any rate, I predict Steven Spielberg.

Foreign Language Film — I don’t really think there’s any doute about this one...Amour.

Animated FeatureFrankenweenie or Brave. Probably Brave.

Cinematography — I’d like Django Unchained or Skyfall (Bond DP Roger Deakins is a perennial nominee who has never won), but I think Life of Pi.

Costume DesignLes Misérables or Anna Karenina. I find this category fascinating, you might want to check out The Hollywood Reporter’s Costume Designers’ Roundtable if you haven’t already.

Original Screenplay — Probably not Zero Dark Thirty or Moonrise Kingdom. I’m thinking Django Unchained.

Adapted Screenplay — I’d like Argo, but I get the feeling it’ll be Lincoln.

Screenplay update: Guess what…both Zero Dark Thirty and Argo won Writers Guild of America awards last night (Feb. 17).

Original Song — “Skyfall” had better win.

10 thoughts on “31 Days of Oscar – 2013 Predictions and Musings

  1. Yeah, ‘Skyfall’ better win! Or I’m going jumpstart the 10s rant soon after ;-). I agree with a number of your predictions, Paula. I do favor Jennifer Lawrence, however. For me, what she accomplished with the less showy character (let’s face it, the script gave Bradley Cooper the more conspicuous problems), through dialogue and facial expression alone, blew me away. Chastain would be my close second, though. And your points about ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ are really keen and threw another light on the film. The excitement is building for this. Fine post for the blogathon. Thanks.

    1. If “Skyfall” loses, I’ll help you write it 😉 I really like Jennifer Lawrence too, she is incredibly talented and I’ll be happy if she wins. & yep, I am super-psyched for Oscar night. Thank you, Michael!

  2. Your predictios are almost identical to mine. I’m in doubt in some categories, too. I think Life of Pi will win probably all awards related to looks and design. The screenplay category is puzzling me!

    1. Aha so then we’ll be right together 😉 Do you mean you are puzzled by which films got nominated for screenplay, or that it’s difficult to predict who’s going to win? It’s both for me 🙂

  3. I’d be completely happy if ARGO wins too, Paula, and Best Foreign Language would go to Amour. I’d be even more of a happy camper if Skyfall wins Best Cinematography AND Best Song! Ahah, they should give the award to Tommy Lee Jones so he doesn’t end up having a Grumpy Tommy tumblr!!

    1. LOL i think he would still be grumpy Ruth, so a tumblr may be inevitable 😉 I agree, re: Skyfall, the song of course, and it would be good to see Deakins finally win an Oscar. I read somewhere (your blog?) that he’s been nominated 10 times. Come on Academy…get with the program lol

    1. Thank you Fernando. I started reading about ZDT again, so I’ve learned I’m not alone in some of my thoughts about it, which is a bit of a relief. I can’t take credit for the graphic but I couldn’t resist putting it in 🙂

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